For now, the EU flag still flutters alongside the Union Jack above the government building. Inside, Mr Picardo is confident that his government can deliver the 8.25% annual growth promised in its pre-election manifesto in November, which had supposedly priced in the risk of Brexit. But many worry that Spain could close the border again, as it did between 1969 and 1985. Within hours of the result, the Spanish foreign minister, José García-Margallo, crowed: “The Spanish flag is now much closer to the Rock.”
Gibraltar’s booming economy (growth came in at 10.6% last year) relies on the thousands of Spanish workers who cross the border every day. Christian Hernandez, president of the chamber of commerce, says the peninsula’s thriving financial-services sector is at risk, too: “The whole way we’ve marketed the jurisdiction is as a gateway into Europe.”
Some industries will prove immune. Roughly 90% of Gibraltar’s insurance and online-betting business consists of transactions with Britain, Mr Picardo reckons. Low tax rates will help keep firms in place. “We don’t see Gibraltar plc collapsing,” says John Westwood, managing director of Blacktower, a financial-services company based in the territory. And Mr Picardo gives short shrift to Mr Garcia-Margallo’s threats over sovereignty: “Another day, another stupid remark.” The British Foreign Office insists it will not even discuss the issue.
Moreover, self-interest is likely to mute Spanish sabre-rattling. Gibraltar provides 25% of the economy of the neighbouring Spanish area of Campo de Gibraltar; the region of Andalusia as a whole suffers 32% unemployment. “Our economy is completely dependent on Gibraltar,” says Juan Franco, mayor of the border town of La Línea de la Concepción. Thirty-year-old Tamara Gómez commutes daily from La Línea to her waitressing job, and has never been able to find a job in Spain: “The only money I’ve ever earned is in Gibraltar.”