Divisive advisor

OF ALL Russia’s neighbours, Ukraine and Georgia should understand each others’ situations. Both countries have fought losing battles against Russian troops supporting local rebels, and had pro-Moscow secessionist regions carved out of their territory. Dozens of Georgians are fighting as volunteers with Ukrainian government-aligned militia; last month one of them returned to Tbilisi in a coffin (pictured). But the two countries’ mutual sympathy has been strained since February 13th, when Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president, announced that the head of his newly established council of international advisers would be Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s former president. Mr Saakashvili, who has lived in exile since 2013, is a bitter enemy of Georgia’s current ruling party, and faces criminal charges in Tbilisi stemming from his time in power. The tensions over his appointment come at a difficult time for Georgia, when the country’s orientation in the conflict between Russia and the West seems increasingly uncertain.

The havoc which falling oil prices and sanctions have wrought on Russia’s economy has spilled over to Georgia. Remittances from abroad, which the World Bank reckons account for 12% of GDP, are falling; half of them come from Russia. Exports were down by 30% in January compared to the previous year. The Georgian lari has lost 29% of its value against the US dollar since November—a major headache in the country’s highly dollarised economy. Last month the government announced it would probably halve its 2015 growth projections to between 2 and 2.5%. It also intends to step up privatisation in a bid to halt the currency slide.

These economic setbacks have fallen hard on a country whose political landscape is bitterly divided. Georgia’s current government, led by the so-called Georgian Dream coalition of prime minister Irakli Gharibashvili, has convicted numerous former officials from Mr Saakishvili’s United National Movement (UNM) on corruption charges, and has detained others for months while they await trial. The former mayor of Tbilisi, Gigi Ugulava, who is accused of money-laundering, has already been in prison for eight months; his request for bail was denied on February 18th. That drew a condemnation of Georgia’s pre-trial detention practices from Pedro Agramunt, the special rapporteur of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

With former UNM officials fearing to return home, graft-plagued Ukraine has hired several of them as advisers, hoping to replicate the corruption-busting success their government enjoyed in Georgia after the 2003 Rose Revolution. Mr Saakashvili is the most prominent. Ukraine’s public prosecutor picked another former UNM official as his deputy three days after Mr Saakashvili’s appointment. Such moves are risky for Georgian-Ukrainian relations. The Georgian public prosecutor has repeatedly demanded Mr Saakashvili’s extradition.

In public, Georgian officials are trying to avoid conflict with Ukraine. As a senior American diplomat pointed out last month during a visit to Tbilisi, Georgia and Ukraine need each other at present. At the same time, Georgian authorities, cowed by the 2008 war, have continued their longstanding policy of avoiding confrontation with Russia. After taking office, the Georgian Dream government courted Moscow by blaming the war on Mr Saakashvili. That brought diplomatic and economic benefits: Russia was Georgia’s fourth-largest trading partner in 2014.

But in the latest conflict, Moscow has done little to reciprocate Tbilisi’s attitude. On February 16th Russia affirmed it would meet its pledge to provide some $145m in financial aid to the breakaway region of Abkhazia in 2015, despite Moscow’s own budget concerns. Two days later Russia signed new agreements with South Ossetia, Georgia’s other secessionist territory, leading Tbilisi to fear it might be annexed. Moscow also continues to make menacing noises about Georgia’s NATO aspirations.

The external threats and economic difficulties facing Georgia underline its need for unity. Instead, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the former prime minister who is now widely considered the government’s grey cardinal after stepping down from power in late 2013, has found new targets. He recently criticised the Western-oriented Republican party, which is part of the governing coalition, for supporting Georgia’s former defense minister, Irakli Alasania. (Mr Alasania stormed out of the government in November 2014.) Last month, Mr Ivanishvili made threatening comments regarding the leaders of several prominent non-governmental organisations in Tbilisi. He has repeatedly criticised the country’s media. Most recently, he has taken to blaming the country's economic troubles on the governor of the central bank. Such divisive moves are probably music to Moscow's ears; they are certainly a worrying sign in a country that professes it wishes to join Europe.