Forecasting the US elections

The Economist is analysing polling, economic and demographic data to predict America’s elections in 2020

US 2020 results Charts, maps and analysis of the presidential and congressional races in one place

Our final pre-election forecast is that the Democrats are likely to win a majority in the Senate.

Democrats
Republicans
Chance of controlling the Senate
around 4 in 5
or 80%
around 1 in 5
or 20%
Average simulated seat total
52.2
seats
 
47.8
seats
 
Predicted range of seats
(51 for majority)
47-58
42-53

The vice president breaks 50-50 ties. Predicted range covers 95% of simulations

Chance of controlling
the Senate
Average simulated
seat total
Predicted range of
seats (51 for majority)
Democrats
around 4 in 5
or 80%
52.2
seats
 
47-58
Republicans
around 1 in 5
or 20%
47.8
seats
 
42-53

The vice president breaks 50-50 ties. Predicted range covers 95% of simulations


Estimated Senate seats

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with “fundamental” factors like incumbency and each state’s partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of Senate seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

Predictions made before October 29th have been revised to reflect a subsequent adjustment in methodology.

Checks and Balance

Rigorous analysis of the people, polls and policies shaping the presidential and congressional races

Senate simulations

Every day, our model explores 10,000 paths each Senate race could take. These simulations allow one party to do unusually well or poorly nationwide, and also provide appropriate uncertainty in each specific contest. The bars below display the probability of each of the two major parties winning a specific number of seats.


Win probability by race

Each state has two senators, but only a third are up for election at one time. Many of the 35 seats up for grabs this year are uncompetitive, so control of the Senate depends on a handful of hard-fought contests. The map below displays the party favoured to win each seat, and its estimated probability of victory.

Sources: Clerk of the House of Representatives; Congressional Quarterly; MIT Election Lab; VoteView; Gary Jacobson; Ballotpedia; Daily Kos Elections; OurCampaigns; state election records; Corwin Smidt; American National Election Studies; Polidata; RealClearPolitics; DC Political Report; FiveThirtyEight; US Election Atlas; Huffington Post Pollster; Congressional District Religiosity Dataset; American Community Survey; United States Census; Wikipedia; Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections; Carl Klarner; Federal Election Commission; Joseph Bafumi; Roper Center; The Economist

Forecast by The Economist