Our final pre-election forecast is that the Democrats are likely to win a majority in the Senate.
(51 for majority)
The vice president breaks 50-50 ties. Predicted range covers 95% of simulations
Chance of controlling the Senate | Average simulated seat total | Predicted range of seats (51 for majority) | |
---|---|---|---|
around 4 in 5 or 80% | 52.2 seats | 47-58 | |
around 1 in 5 or 20% | 47.8 seats | 42-53 |
The vice president breaks 50-50 ties. Predicted range covers 95% of simulations
Estimated Senate seats
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with “fundamental” factors like incumbency and each state’s partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of Senate seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
Senate simulations
Every day, our model explores 10,000 paths each Senate race could take. These simulations allow one party to do unusually well or poorly nationwide, and also provide appropriate uncertainty in each specific contest. The bars below display the probability of each of the two major parties winning a specific number of seats.
Win probability by race
Each state has two senators, but only a third are up for election at one time. Many of the 35 seats up for grabs this year are uncompetitive, so control of the Senate depends on a handful of hard-fought contests. The map below displays the party favoured to win each seat, and its estimated probability of victory.
Sources: Clerk of the House of Representatives; Congressional Quarterly; MIT Election Lab; VoteView; Gary Jacobson; Ballotpedia; Daily Kos Elections; OurCampaigns; state election records; Corwin Smidt; American National Election Studies; Polidata; RealClearPolitics; DC Political Report; FiveThirtyEight; US Election Atlas; Huffington Post Pollster; Congressional District Religiosity Dataset; American Community Survey; United States Census; Wikipedia; Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections; Carl Klarner; Federal Election Commission; Joseph Bafumi; Roper Center; The Economist
Forecast by The Economist