Our final pre-election forecast is that the Democrats are all but certain to keep their majority in the House of Representatives.
(218 to win)
| Chance of winning House majority | Predicted range of House seats (218 to win) | Predicted range of popular vote | |
|---|---|---|---|
better than 19 in 20 or >99% | 227-264 | 51-55% | |
less than 1 in 20 or <1% | 171-208 | 45-49% |
Estimated House seats
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with “fundamental” factors like incumbency and each district’s partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
House simulations
Every day, our model explores 10,000 different paths each House race could take. These simulations allow one party to do unusually well or poorly nationwide, and also provide appropriate uncertainty in each specific contest. The bars below display the probability of each major party winning a specific number of seats.
Win probability by district
Most House races are uncompetitive. However, a few dozen front-line races will determine whether the Democrats can expand their majority, or see it dwindle or even disappear. The map below displays the party favoured to win each seat, and its estimated probability of victory.
National popular vote for the House
House races are winner-take-all, and a party’s share of seats can differ from its vote share. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of each party’s share of all votes for House candidates, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes. We impute missing votes in districts where candidates are unopposed.
Sources: Clerk of the House of Representatives; Congressional Quarterly; MIT Election Lab; VoteView; Gary Jacobson; Ballotpedia; Daily Kos Elections; OurCampaigns; state election records; Corwin Smidt; American National Election Studies; Polidata; RealClearPolitics; DC Political Report; FiveThirtyEight; US Election Atlas; Huffington Post Pollster; Congressional District Religiosity Dataset; American Community Survey; United States Census; Wikipedia; Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections; Carl Klarner; Federal Election Commission; Joseph Bafumi; Roper Center; The Economist
Forecast by The Economist