Our final pre-election forecast is that Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.
(270 to win)
| Chance of winning the electoral college | Chance of winning the most votes | Predicted range of electoral college votes (270 to win) | |
|---|---|---|---|
better than 19 in 20 or 97% | better than 19 in 20 or >99% | 259-415 | |
less than 1 in 20 or 3% | less than 1 in 20 or <1% | 123-279 |
Estimated electoral college votes
Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day.
Electoral-college simulations
Our model works by simulating 20,000 paths for the election, each time varying candidates’ vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the political environment and the effects of campaigning. The bars below represent the predicted likelihood of every plausible electoral-vote outcome.
Chance of winning each state
Our model combines the national prediction with polls and political-economic factors at the state level. We take into account that states that are similar are likely to move with each other; if Donald Trump wins Minnesota, he will probably win Wisconsin too.
Key states
We use two metrics to measure states’ importance. One is the “tipping-point probability”: the chance that a state will cast the decisive 270th electoral vote for the victor. The other is the chance that any single voter in a state will cast the decisive ballot that wins the tipping-point state for the next president.
Modelled popular vote on each day
The model first averages the polls, weighting them by their sample sizes and correcting them for tendencies to overestimate support for one party. It then combines this average with our forecast based on non-polling data, pulling vote shares on each day slightly towards the final election-day projection.
| Pollster | Population | Mode | Sample size | Biden | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | Likely to vote | Online | 914 | 54% | 46% | D +7.2 |
Oct 31st-Nov 2nd | ||||||
| YouGov (Economist) | Likely to vote | Online | 1,363 | 55% | 45% | D +10.4 |
Oct 31st-Nov 2nd | ||||||
| Research Co. | Likely to vote | Online | 1,025 | 54% | 46% | D +8.7 |
Oct 31st-Nov 2nd | ||||||
| AYTM | Likely to vote | Online | 700 | 55% | 45% | D +10.3 |
Oct 30th-Oct 31st | ||||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Likely to vote | Online | 8,765 | 56% | 44% | D +12.8 |
Oct 30th-Nov 1st | ||||||
| YouGov (Yahoo) | Likely to vote | Online | 1,360 | 55% | 45% | D +10.4 |
Oct 30th-Nov 1st | ||||||
| YouGov (Yahoo) | Registered voters | Online | 1,501 | 55% | 45% | D +10.4 |
Oct 30th-Nov 1st | ||||||
| Change Research | Likely to vote | Online | 1,880 | 55% | 45% | D +10.6 |
Oct 29th-Nov 1st | ||||||
| SurveyUSA | Likely to vote | Online | 1,265 | 54% | 46% | D +8.3 |
Oct 29th-Oct 31st | ||||||
| RMG Research | Likely to vote | Online | 1,200 | 54% | 46% | D +7.4 |
Oct 29th-Oct 31st | ||||||
| Pollster | Biden | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 54% | 46% | D +7.2 |
Oct 31st-Nov 2nd ▼ More info | |||
| YouGov (Economist) | 55% | 45% | D +10.4 |
Oct 31st-Nov 2nd ▼ More info | |||
| Research Co. | 54% | 46% | D +8.7 |
Oct 31st-Nov 2nd ▼ More info | |||
| AYTM | 55% | 45% | D +10.3 |
Oct 30th-Oct 31st ▼ More info | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 56% | 44% | D +12.8 |
Oct 30th-Nov 1st ▼ More info | |||
| YouGov (Yahoo) | 55% | 45% | D +10.4 |
Oct 30th-Nov 1st ▼ More info | |||
| YouGov (Yahoo) | 55% | 45% | D +10.4 |
Oct 30th-Nov 1st ▼ More info | |||
| Change Research | 55% | 45% | D +10.6 |
Oct 29th-Nov 1st ▼ More info | |||
| SurveyUSA | 54% | 46% | D +8.3 |
Oct 29th-Oct 31st ▼ More info | |||
| RMG Research | 54% | 46% | D +7.4 |
Oct 29th-Oct 31st ▼ More info | |||
How states move together
Our model also simulates what would happen if the race moves, or the polls are biased, in similar amounts in like states. We calculate similarity between states by comparing their demographic and political profiles, such as the share of white voters who live there, how religious they are and how urban or rural the state is.
Sources: US Census Bureau; MIT Election and Data Science Lab; 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; American National Election Studies; 270towin.com; Gallup; FiveThirtyEight; YouGov
Forecast by The Economist with Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns, Columbia University