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Most governments are not yet on track to hit their vaccine roll-out targets

Some countries aim to inoculate millions of people a day. So far, most are falling short

ON JANUARY 3rd, India’s medicines regulator approved the emergency use of two covid-19 vaccines, giving the green light to the shot developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University, as well as a home-grown offering dubbed “Covaxin” from Bharat Biotech, based in Hyderabad. But there was a catch: according to Adar Poonawalla, the boss of the Serum Institute of India, the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world, approval of the Astrazeneca-Oxford vaccine was contingent on the company not exporting any doses abroad for several months in order to prioritise vulnerable Indians, 300m of whom the country hopes to vaccinate by July. Serum had already promised 200m doses to COVAX, a scheme to distribute covid-19 vaccines to poor countries.

Indian officials have since denied there was any such ban, claiming that exports to countries in South Asia will begin within weeks of the vaccine being rolled out this month. But the saga illustrates governments’ desire to inoculate their own citizens quickly, and their worries that there won’t be enough vaccine to go round. Some are more ambitious in their vaccination plans than others (see chart). Britain—which is currently in a third national lockdown amid record-breaking numbers of coronavirus infections—wants by mid-February to provide at least one dose of a vaccine to care-home residents and staff, frontline health workers, people over 70 and those deemed “extremely vulnerable” to covid-19. That’s 13.4m people, or just under 2m doses a week.(By January 5th Britain had administered 1.3m doses, having started on December 8th). America wants to immunise 100m by the end of the first quarter of 2021, plus another 100m by mid-year. China intends to inoculate 50m front-line workers before the lunar new year next month, the country’s busiest time for travel. Both Germany and France want to vaccinate 12% of their populations, representing 10m and 8m people respectively.

Although there is no centralised database logging the number of covid-19 vaccines being administered around the globe, Our World in Data, an online publication based at the University of Oxford, has been tracking the progress of vaccination campaigns based on government announcements. These figures suggest that Israel has currently reached by far the greatest share of its population, having administered 1.37m jabs, or 15.83 doses per 100 people, since December 20th. (Israel’s success is aided by its relatively small population and land size, as well as the unique structure of its health system.) The United Arab Emirates comes in second with 8.35 doses per 100 people, followed by Bahrain (3.75), America (1.46) and Britain (1.39 as of December 27th).

Most countries in the European Union, where vaccine rollouts have moved extremely slowly, generating widespread criticism, are lagging behind. Because many vaccines require two doses, the number of people fully inoculated against covid-19 may be much lower than reflected in these numbers, though Britain has begun delaying second shots in order to reach a larger number of people, and Europe is considering following suit. Poorer countries face even greater challenges than rich ones, and it is estimated that many won’t administer enough doses to make a difference until 2022. In the race to inoculate, the question of who is ahead and who is behind will become increasingly pressing.

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