Samuel Charap considers how Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate

RUSSIA’S ATTACK on Ukraine—horrific as it is in itself—has raised concerns in many Western capitals of an even-worse outcome: escalation to a broader war with NATO allies which could involve nuclear weapons. While such a war is far from inevitable, the possibility of the current conflict spiralling beyond the immediate theatre of hostilities is real. Understanding how that could happen is essential to minimising the risk that it does.

Escalation—an increase in the intensity or scope of conflict—can occur because of a deliberate decision to up the ante, or because of a step or accident that unintentionally produces the same effect. While the American strategist Herman Kahn famously described escalation in terms of deliberate ascent up rungs on a ladder, his metaphor failed to capture this latter dynamic, which is more akin to free-falling down a ravine.