Why Joe Biden’s instinctive caution makes real change possible

WHEN THE history of the Trump presidency is written, a photo-op in Lafayette Square at the beginning of June might just mark the turning-point. Since he announced his run for the White House in 2015, Donald Trump’s political method has been to maximise at all times the amount of attention directed at him. The Lafayette Square escapade offended Christians, because the president waved a Bible around like a prop. It embarrassed the country’s most senior military commander, who later apologised for joining a political show that involved the tear-gassing of peaceful protesters. More important, it did not work. Rather than being in command, Mr Trump seemed desperate. When power is based on appearances it can slip away suddenly.

Before covid-19 hit America, Mr Trump looked likelier than not to be re-elected, thanks to a relentlessly growing economy. Incumbent presidents almost always win in such circumstances. Our election model made him a narrow favourite, even though he was a few points down in national polls with his rival, Joe Biden. However, the president is now in a deep hole. Mr Biden is up by nine points—more in some polls. He is doing well in battleground states like Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin, and he has strong support among older voters and is doing surprisingly well among white voters who did not go to college. Our model now gives Mr Trump only a roughly 10% chance of winning. The virus has demonstrated something definitively to a large number of persuadable voters: that Mr Trump is just not that good at being a president.