The crisis over Taiwan is yet another test for Xi Jinping

IT IS A case study in how not to manage expectations. As Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of America’s House of Representatives, mulled a trip to Taiwan, officials in China, which claims the island, warned her to stay away. “If she dares to go, just wait and see,” said a foreign-ministry official. The army “will not sit idly by”, threatened the defence ministry. President Xi Jinping suggested a furious reaction: “Those who play with fire will perish by it,” he told Joe Biden. The ultimatums sent Chinese nationalists into a frenzy. Many expected to see Ms Pelosi’s plane shot down if it approached Taiwan.

But her plane landed on the island without incident on August 2nd and Ms Pelosi spent the next 24 hours meeting with Taiwanese politicians and Chinese dissidents. Since she left on August 3rd, China has fired missiles over Taiwan (the first time it had done this), sent military ships and aircraft across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, and conducted large-scale drills in areas surrounding the island in what looked like a rehearsal for a blockade. It also imposed economic sanctions and suspended dialogue with America in several areas, such as military affairs. Still, many nationalists are not satisfied. Some joked bitterly that the neighbourhood committees enforcing covid-19 restrictions are fiercer than the foreign ministry: if the committees tell you to stay out of somewhere, you stay out.