Germany is facing dramatic change in many dimensions all at once

Much of germany’s success in recent decades can be put down to staying the course. Even its dramas were dramas of continuity—as when, in 2015, Angela Merkel refused to change the country’s asylum policy in the face of a huge influx of Syrian refugees. “Wir schaffen das,” she said as she held open the door—”We can handle this.” The much-quoted remark projected compassion and confidence while offering voters astute reassurance. Germany was strong and stable enough to cope with this extraordinary development. There would be readjustments, but no deep changes, nor serious costs.

The crisis brought on by Russia’s attack on Ukraine this February is of a different order. Olaf Scholz, who took over from Mrs Merkel last December at the head of a coalition of social democrats, greens and liberals, was quick to grasp the shift. Speaking just three days after Russian tanks rolled over the border he declared the arrival of a Zeitenwende—a change in the spirit of the times. Germany would support Ukraine to the hilt, he said. It would punish Russia with sanctions and pump up its own army. It would reverse its willingness—partly a policy of engagement through trade, partly opportunism—to depend on Russia for inordinate amounts of natural gas.